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 Post subject: Collection value
PostPosted: 15 Nov 2022, 03:39 
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Hello!

Following this request from ... 2011, I added a rough evaluation of one's collection value based on the 2004~2022 average of selling prices on LDDb.

admin @ Collection Value Total

Attachment:
Eval.png
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This is BY NO MEAN a precise statistical tool and is only here for entertainment because:

  1. Titles that have never sold here will not contribute to the sum => underestimation
    :arrow: Could come with a warning that only X% of the collection has statistics to back the estimation.
  2. Unless the prices have remained flat since 2004, average will overestimate price drops and underestimate price increases.
    :arrow: Could be improved by using moving averages or "X most recent" when available.
  3. Without grading added to your collection, the mint average prices will be used, this would underestimate collections with sealed titles and overestimate collections with used/damaged ones.
    :arrow: Requires user inputs.
  4. Very mainstream titles with multiple transactions will bring some interesting contribution to the sum but collections with obscure/unique title will be grossly underestimated.

Julien
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 Post subject: Re: Collection value
PostPosted: 15 Nov 2022, 05:41 
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Utterly pointless exercise, but just for fun if I apply this algorithm to ALL the LaserDisc collections right now (a million+ entries), I get:

Min: $10,093,006.55
Avg: $10,591,651.13
Max: $11,294,693.59

We're (collectively) multimillionaires ;-)

Julien
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 Post subject: Re: Collection value
PostPosted: 16 Nov 2022, 18:19 
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admin wrote:
[*] Unless the prices have remained flat since 2004, average will overestimate price drops and underestimate price increases.
:arrow: Could be improved by using moving averages or "X most recent" when available.


I made a quick update to only consider the most recent used/mint/sealed transaction prices for each title and updated the Collection stats.

Approach is the same: no past sale = $0, mint by default, and mint by default if used or sealed data are not available.

Quote:
Collection value based on all historical data: Min $x.xx - Average $y.yy - Max $z.zz
If only the most recent transactions are considered: $x.xx


Re-evaluating the total in collection as of today with the average method, we are now at:

Min: $10,115,223.67
Avg: $10,614,213.85
Max: $11,317,750.83

And the "last prices" method shows that recent prices are slightly below their historical average: $10,446,546.93

Julien
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