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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 02 Feb 2019, 05:40 
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If I had to hazard a guess, probably about a decade.

Part of the issue is that a format's quality becomes 'good enough' at some point. I think the mp3 format (and similar compressed formats) put the nail in the coffin for physical audio media. The benefits of portability, space savings, and instant access heavily outweigh the slight loss in quality vs a CD, to the general public. Are DVD-A and SACD better? Of course, but probably not so much that most care. Most can't even tell the differences between a 192kbps mpeg and a 24-bit lossless audio file. SACD also initially had the high barrier to entry, needing a new receiver with discrete channels, thanks Sony :clap:.

Video media is similar in that regard. Laserdisc looks acceptable to most people. DVD is still a primary format in older generation's homes, and that is partially why the Blu-ray/DVD/Streaming combo pack is offered at so many stores. As substance stated, "HD streaming is like a well mastered upscaled DVD". This meets the quality of 'good enough' for most people, and then you get all the benefits that I previously mentioned with mp3.

Netflix streaming service started about 12 years ago...and now almost 60% of the US of A steams some form of content. The biggest downside I see is the difficulty of sharing content. It's great to be able to pass a disc or, in the past, a cassette to a friend. Personally, I love LD because of the physical connection with the media itself, and the smell of ozone that the player puts out. Steaming just seems ephemeral by comparison.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 02 Feb 2019, 06:55 
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plagueis wrote:
The biggest downside I see is the difficulty of sharing content.


What about handing over control of what you can access to corporate interests and whims? Isn't that a bigger downside?

I can always watch my copies of the '80s video cut of SWOT, as long as I have a working LD player, if it's carried on netflix of not. That applies to countless other titles and versions that aren't on streaming or download services.

If I go streaming only then I have access to all the horrible new additions to star wars (don't want) and I'm forced to watch the s****y special editions because George Pucas said I have to.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 02 Feb 2019, 08:01 
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plagueis wrote:
, ...and the smell of ozone that the player puts out.


Hmmm... I remember one of my players had the smell of a smoker and it irritated me for quite some time. :eh: After sitting in a smoke free place for about a year, it eventually went away thank goodness. I guess that's what I get for receiving a free player. :lol:
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 02 Feb 2019, 14:50 
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firehorse_44 wrote:
I may be wrong, however I feel that physical media will increase in popularity for the short term. This includes VHS/BETA/LASERDISCS -

As the move toward streaming as "the norm" rambles onward, netflix and their ilk will show just how fragile this medium for viewing media really is.
(Let us not even mention limited selections ! )
Once the broadband gets more and more overloaded, streaming of content will suffer the price of heavy traffic every evening at peak viewing hours.
Especially around major urban centers.
Already seeing this fragile razors edge of broadband usage in the rural area I occupy. 5G may change this broadband limitation, time will tell.......

When outages occur via broadband (and they do happen semi frequently in my area, including cell phone application !) guess who is still watching movies unimpeded ?

Technology will advance to the next evolution and this too shall pass ........

I am wrong a great deal of the time when speculating about the future. No crystal ball (that functions !) ;^) on my shelves !

However, media you can hold, ie : games cartridges, game discs, dvd's, VHS/BETA tapes, 8 Track, Cassettes, DAT, LP's, and of course the glorious LaserDisc has held favor not just with the populous that has or is dying off in great numbers. The youth have and will eventually discern the value of physical media vs. intangible media. Gotta give young peeps some credit where due. Once young adults and even young children get their sea legs and get a whiff of physical media the cat is out of the bag.

This is and has been my opinion based on raising a young person now in their early 20's ......
(I may be wrong and in a few short years physical media may be gone the way of the dinosaurs, kaput, end, finis ........) I do not really know....

Anyone reading this check the dumpsters around my location when I expire lol !


Shout out to all the membership that still finds enjoyment spinning these shiny metallic platters !

("liner notes, Gatefold Jacket, what is that ?" says a citizen of the near future lol )

Cheers mates

(copied from another thread .... )


I appreciate the long reply but I think you misunderstood. We are talking about new media will not continue to be released. Right now all evidence is showing this is inevitable and happening very soon.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 02 Feb 2019, 14:58 
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plagueis wrote:
If I had to hazard a guess, probably about a decade.

Part of the issue is that a format's quality becomes 'good enough' at some point. I think the mp3 format (and similar compressed formats) put the nail in the coffin for physical audio media. The benefits of portability, space savings, and instant access heavily outweigh the slight loss in quality vs a CD, to the general public. Are DVD-A and SACD better? Of course, but probably not so much that most care. Most can't even tell the differences between a 192kbps mpeg and a 24-bit lossless audio file. SACD also initially had the high barrier to entry, needing a new receiver with discrete channels, thanks Sony :clap:.

Video media is similar in that regard. Laserdisc looks acceptable to most people. DVD is still a primary format in older generation's homes, and that is partially why the Blu-ray/DVD/Streaming combo pack is offered at so many stores. As substance stated, "HD streaming is like a well mastered upscaled DVD". This meets the quality of 'good enough' for most people, and then you get all the benefits that I previously mentioned with mp3.

Netflix streaming service started about 12 years ago...and now almost 60% of the US of A steams some form of content. The biggest downside I see is the difficulty of sharing content. It's great to be able to pass a disc or, in the past, a cassette to a friend. Personally, I love LD because of the physical connection with the media itself, and the smell of ozone that the player puts out. Steaming just seems ephemeral by comparison.



Totally agree. It’s been proven again and again, convenience and price beats best tech (beta vs vhs).

For the average joe, it’s not “what do I want to watch tonight” but more like “ what is available to watch tonight” and this doesn’t bother them. So the limited selection on Netflix is no issue.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 02 Feb 2019, 20:48 
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ldfan wrote:
Hmmm... I remember one of my players had the smell of a smoker and it irritated me for quite some time. :eh:

I'm not quite sure if it's ozone per se, more like the smell of quality electronics doing their thing. I may have a sensitive sense of smell, but there is a specific scent to a recently spun LD.

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What about handing over control of what you can access to corporate interests and whims? Isn't that a bigger downside?

That is a concern, however, once the majority is using streaming what choice will there be for the new Disney Marvel Sequel Prequel Reboot Anthology #38? :lol:

Like membership cards at your local pharmacy to get that extra dollar off of a soda pack, one is tracked for their selections on streaming services. The store may move the beer closer to the door with that information, and the streaming service will change the personalized suggestions, either way data is being collected and used. One possibilities I have considered is what happens if someone's account is frozen (ex. Amazon over a return, dispute, or otherwise)? Is their media held hostage? I think back-ups are a valid option if one is worried about the validity of a service. A scan converter and an old dvd burner could even do the trick, if you don't have a lot of hard drives. Not having an internet connection is less of an issue, as that would be no different than if someone's last LD player broke.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 03 Feb 2019, 06:53 
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plagueis wrote:
[One possibilities I have considered is what happens if someone's account is frozen (ex. Amazon over a return, dispute, or otherwise)? Is their media held hostage? I think back-ups are a valid option if one is worried about the validity of a service. A scan converter and an old dvd burner could even do the trick, if you don't have a lot of hard drives. Not having an internet connection is less of an issue, as that would be no different than if someone's last LD player broke.
]

f**k that. Just having the good ol' LD on your shelf negates all of that b******t.

It's usually the f***ing ultimate version of the thing you're going through hoops to preserve anyway. It's the version that actual film directors had next to their TVs in the '80s and '90s. It's the superlative, ultimate home version of any film made before 2K. So why f**k around? Go straight to the source and f**k all this streaming/contemporary bull-shit. the modern world sucks so why support it?
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 03 Feb 2019, 07:18 
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It will be unplayable at some point so enjoy the stuff while you can and hope it will be preserved for future viewings.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 03 Feb 2019, 07:22 
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xtempo wrote:
It will be unplayable at some point so enjoy the stuff while you can and hope it will be preserved for future viewings.


Well I probably got 40 more years on this planet (touch wood), going off average life expectancies, I think that's a plausible amount of time to keep at least 1 LD player operational?
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 03 Feb 2019, 11:55 
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maybe so but who really knows.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 03 Feb 2019, 22:53 
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The only physical media that will increase in value over the years are vinyl records without any doubt. You can put a vinyl record in a corner for 50 years and you do not have to be afraid that they will become unplayable. People will continue to collect vinyl records because they sound great and a it is fun to collect them.

DVDs will become more or less worthless as they will become unplayable over time. Same with Blu Ray discs etc. CDs will suffer the same fate. Period.

I have several big harddrives. I usually copy my discs to them and make regular backups of my harddrives. I love my FLAC and DVD / Blu Ray ISO collection and will continue to cherish it for years to come.
I will also continue to collect laserdiscs as it is a fun format and I have 38 year old LDs that still play great but most likely all the players will eventually stop working sometime in the near future.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 03 Feb 2019, 23:52 
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I think you massively overstate the volatility of formats like CD. If I’ve been playing the same disc with no problems for 30+ years I don’t see why they couldn’t last two or three or four times that long. Aside from defective pressings and defective owners we have yet to see any sign of CDs dying off in waves, at least as far as I know. DVD seems much more likely to rot but I haven’t seen any evidence of it yet.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2019, 00:13 
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Yeah, those hard drives will be in the trash heap long before any of those CDs you ripped become unplayable. I've got at least one CD that's almost 30 years old and scratched to sh!t and still plays fine.

I don't understand how you'd even draw that conclusion really. Considering they're far more ubiquitous than laserdisc, how come they don't have the reputation for rotting?
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2019, 00:23 
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takeshi666 wrote:
Yeah, those hard drives will be in the trash heap long before any of those CDs you ripped become unplayable. I've got at least one CD that's almost 30 years old and scratched to sh!t and still plays fine.

I don't understand how you'd even draw that conclusion really. Considering they're far more ubiquitous than laserdisc, how come they don't have the reputation for rotting?


Well I copy my files to new harddrives every 2,3 years or so using a RAID setup.

Yes, I have CDs that are were pressed during the times of the Cold War and still play without any issues whatsoever but they will die one day, eventually.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2019, 02:44 
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So it’s a $15 CD for 30 years+ versus an unproven media rot theory that requires that you’d buy ten HDs in the same amount of time?

My money is on the CD both for the lower investment but also because migrating media over and over again without issues does often go wrong. I’m pretty meticulous about backing stuff up but even I have lost things or have had them corrupted. More times than I’ve scratched a CD for sure. Sometimes it’s hard to know when the thing was lost of corrupted. You just find that is is one day and that it’s also messed up on every backup you still have.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2019, 20:23 
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yeah I've got scores of CDs from the early '80s and none have any problems yet, a lot coming up on 40 years of existence..

I couldn't be bothered with HDDs, I want to play back on real gear as well. I just swap out CDs all day and there's usually stacks of them sitting all around my CDPs.


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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2019, 20:26 
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confederate wrote:

Well I copy my files to new harddrives every 2,3 years or so using a RAID setup.


You should be fine but I'd also keep the original media as the "master" copy.

Quote:
Yes, I have CDs that are were pressed during the times of the Cold War and still play without any issues whatsoever but they will die one day, eventually.


How long are you planning to live for?
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2019, 21:02 
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 05 Feb 2019, 00:25 
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The main reason I got into LD was because I didn’t want to spend $150 per movie on Japanese VHS that would wear out when the LD is $100 and lasts forever. So far I haven’t been let down. None of the LDs I bought new have ever rotted. And LD is the most famously rot prone format (a title that should clearly belong to HDDVD)! They used to sell this stuff as a “lifetime library” kind of thing and for me so far it’s worked. I watch LDs almost every single day without issue.
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 Post subject: Re: How many more years before physical media is dead?
PostPosted: 05 Feb 2019, 00:47 
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It sure seems like at this point most of the bad rot cases are well known and properly stored discs will be fine. I haven't ran into rot across over 100 discs yet.
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